In the third Data Analytics Series BIGcast, The CECL Effect, John Best speaks with Dr. Joseph Breeden of Deep Future Analytics about CECL, data pooling, and predictive analytics.
The Impact of CECL
As Joe Breeden explains in the podcast, CECL stands for Current Expected Credit Loss, and is the new accounting standard for how financial institutions will set loss reserves. Typically, organizations under $10 Billion assets have utilized moving averages to calculate loss reserves, but this model is backward-looking and will not be acceptable for the new regulations. A moving average model will always set your loss reserves too low moving into a recession and too high moving out of the recession.
When discussing how to meet CECL requirements and create a forward-looking model, Breeden states, “There is a lot of flexibility on how you implement it, but there are two things that are pretty much unavoidable”: